Kicking the ball, either for a punt or a field goal, is the safe choice. They even created, a very cool 4th Down Bot — his (or hers, or its) decisions are listed there for every NFL team. Too bad math isn't enough to make Bengals fans hate Marvin Lewis any less.Looking at the 2018 season, let's see if there's a correlation between game-winning success and 4th down aggression. It will happen a whole lot over the next five months. Then, it took thousands of real NFL plays on 4th down to calculate the potential value of each situation. Throughout history, forces who were more aggressive in combat saw a lot more success compared their predecessors. But a key and often overlooked consideration is that, despite the high accuracy of today’s kickers, field goals are not automatic. The U.S. strategy of building an overwhelming force to push Iraq out of Kuwait led to a decisive victory in a mere 40 days during the Gulf War. While the the bot created by Burke's formula and the New York Times doesn't account for what to do in a blowout situation, Lewis made the mathematically correct call. In 2014, he published a study The longitudinal study assumes that coaches want to maximize the number of points they score while minimizing the number of points the other team scores. If a team is facing a 4th down with 4 yards to go on their opponent's 40 yard line, there's a good chance they'll still opt to punt the ball away. Five of the ten most successfully aggressive teams on 4th down also lead in total yardage, points per game, and total points this season.One caveat: the least successful on 4th down conversions are also the least successful teams so far this year. But the NYT 4th Down Bot says that’s a mistake. Ask any military historian: Tactical aggression is a game changer. It’s a pass-happy league in which offenses can zip up and down the field, easily gaining back the field position a punt may have purchased.Touchdowns are obviously worth more than twice the points of a field goal. Bengals fans everywhere were livid, given the score. >>Dirk Koetter: Percentages say go for it on fourth down, but if I fail I’m out of here. People who do understand math The horrible ball handling that led to the turnover aside, the Bengals tried for a fake punt on 4 and 9 from their own 37-yard-line with almost the entire second quarter remaining. The bot “uses thousands of N.F.L. Why not risk the turnover when you're running out of the time it takes to score the That call — still a bad one — is one made over and over by conservative coaches, even in situations not quite as extreme as the one Cincinnati faced that Sunday night. Economists and statisticians, on the other hand, lose their minds. That doesn't correlate, but the teams with the next-highest percentages in 4th down conversions are the Saints (at 87.5 percent) and the Chiefs (at 80 percent). You play to win, not to lose with honor. Ulysses S. Grant's determination to take the war to the Confederates led to a win for the Union in the Civil War. They had Justin Tucker, an excellent kicker, who made the field goal and won the game. This post is meant to be a quick tutorial on fourth-down strategy, neatly summarized in the chart above. "That way you can actually get at which strategy is better." Near your opponent’s goal line, going for it is better because your opponent is left with poor field position even if you fail — and you’ll often get the ball back near midfield in short order.As the down-to-go distance increases, your chances of successfully converting a first down become smaller — and the decisions become more nuanced. But around midfield, depending on the distance you have to go, I still recommend that coaches go for it.Again, those rules of thumb, which vary depending on the specific teams involved:As the yards-to-go increases, the low risk of succeeding on fourth down makes punting or kicking a field goal a wiser option for most places on the field, except in that nether region where you’re barely out of field-goal range but too close to punt. They’ll help you figure out when your team’s coach — or your most hated team’s coach — is hurting his team.Get used to it. That chart is the bottom line, the take-away. Coaches often behave as if they were.Punts are no longer as valuable as they once were — the more freely offenses can move down the field, the less important field position becomes — and field goals aren’t as valuable as squishy human brains perceive, so that leaves the go-for-it option looking better every day.More than half of all plays in the N.F.L. Because there's no real reason for a coach to be so conservative. — would have won the game, but my data told me it was very unlikely to succeed (a 15 percent chance, on average). For anyone who saw the Bengals-Chiefs game on Oct. 21, 2018, watching Cincinnati opt to take a field goal in the 3rd quarter while down by 30-plus points was a real head-scratcher. Yam's analysis showed that if teams followed the directions of the Times' 4th Down Bot, they'd see a measureable benefit.

But the Ravens didn’t have an average kicker. Before we get to all the nerdy stuff, let's go ahead and answer my original question of what coaches aren't being aggressive enough — who's creating all those 19 yard field goals and 36 yard punts for touchbacks.

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